Saturday, June 11, 2011

H.E.L.P.


In the 1992 race for President, James Carville, master political strategist for Governor Bill Clinton, sealed the deal for Bill and cooked the goose of one George H.W. Bush #41, with one line, "It's the economy stupid." That line resonated with the electorate like no other and George was out and Bill was in...snap, like that. It didn't matter that George handily defeated Saddam in Kuwait, that was ancient news. What mattered most to the voters was that the economy was in tatters and #41 didn't seem to care. That ingrained blueblood Kennebunkport insouciance infuriated main street.

Now fast forward to 2012. Will 2012, as Yogi Berra declared some time ago on another matter, be "deja vu all over again"? Two plus years ago, President Obama was handed an economy near collapse by his predecessor, George W, Bush, #43. "Tanks for nuttin," W. A smart Obama knew what he was getting into, but, supposedly he had an enlightened plan to "change" everything that was wrong. After almost 30 months of the "policy of change", most of which was dubious, the only thing that hasn't changed from my perspective is that the economy is still fragile and teetering. I suspect if the economy is still in the doldrums in 12 months, the line above will be a redux resurrected from the opposition but with an added word, "it's the economy stupid...again" proclaimed by Palin or Romney or Perry or Christie.

Obama, if he wants another term, and what politician worth his tongue doesn't, has to H.E.L.P., an acronym, his country now. He cannot blame #43 for his past sins, that doesn't work anymore. He has to own this Presidency. He wanted this job. It wasn't thrusted blindly upon him. He has to own this sorry economy and fix it. We expect nothing less. That's part of the deal. Currently, we are in a 7% market decline in a 6 week downdraft on all the markets and the potential for a continued slide this week. Economic storm clouds are everywhere. Debt ceiling. Health care. Greece. Europe. China. Banks. FED. Oil. However, there are four main areas in the economy that need immediate H.E.L.P. now for his presidency and for all citizens of this great country.

H. Housing. This is the engine of our country. Trillions of dollars are at risk here. It was reported last week that 40% of people holding second mortgages on their homes are "under water." They owe more than the home is worth. How to solve this? Who the hell knows. Obama, seemingly, is hamstrung on this matter. It didn't help when his chief economic policy advisor, Austin Goolsbee, bolted for a tenured position at University of Chicago. (Why work in dysfunctional DC when AG can have a cushy job in ivory tower academia?) Obama was dealt a heavy body blow. Is there a solution to this short of taxpayers eating another trillion in losses? Now that wouldn't go over too well on main street.

E. Employment. Outside of Silicon Valley, companies are not hiring. Unemployment, unexpectedly rose last month to 9.1%. No President has ever won re-election with an unemployment rate over 7%. Engineers are coming out college with no job offers. Obama has one year to create a couple of million jobs. At the current measly rate of an added 50,000 non-governmental jobs a month (prior to last month's decline), that ain't going to get it done.

L. Lending. Continually hammered by the feds, banks are not lending to their capacity. They are in the trenches waiting for some love from Washington. Not coming. DC hates these guys. They created the near meltdown of 2008 in the first place. Banks have become Obama's personal obsession of hate. Obama needs to change his tone with them. Embrace the enemy, empower them to do business and make it work for the greater good.

P. Productivity. Our country's largest manufacturers and producers are operating at far less than optimum capacity. Again, they have little confidence in our government now. The ever-changing and aggressive anti-business policies coming out of DC are not good for corps and their CEOs in planning for the future. They remain cautious and scared. They don't hire. They don't expand. They keep inventories low. They horde cash. They wait for stability. Who can blame them?

I think both sides of aisle will agree with this: we need to grow this economy now. If we grow the economy we decrease crippling debt, our primary antagonist in this drama, we become healthier as a country. Employers employ. Tax roles increase. Public projects are started again. Municipalities thrive. Entitlements are funded. And everybody benefits.

So, Mr. President this is your siren call to action. Do something bold. Call it change. Call it whatever. But don't call it other people's fault. This is your deal now. And if you don't succeed, come November 2012, we'll do a Jimmy Carter on you as fast as you can say, one-term.

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